A Fourth Turning Guarantees A Bump In The Road

Navigating Change on A Personal Basis

I first read William Strauss and Neil Howe’s  book The Fourth Turning shortly after it was published in  1997. At the time, it turned my head. The regularity of major conflict and change roughly every eighty years was stunning. First the American Revolution, followed by the Civil War, and then World War II. Each was a fourth turning.

I watched over the next several decades as the book’s prophesies evolved. And now in the 2020’s, we are yet again in the midst of a fourth turning.

What is a fourth turning? From Amazon:

First comes a High, a period of confident expansion. Next comes an Awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion. Then comes an Unraveling, in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a Crisis—the Fourth Turning—when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history.

The authors look back five hundred years and uncover a distinct pattern: Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting about the length of a long human life, each composed of four twenty-year eras—or “turnings”—that comprise history’s seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth. Illustrating this cycle through a brilliant analysis of the post–World War II period, The Fourth Turning offers bold predictions about how all of us can prepare, individually and collectively, for this rendezvous with destiny.

With these insights in hand, some of the events we are experiencing make sense: the manipulation of the media to push a false narrative (think Covid, among other things); the manufactured divisiveness of political discourse; the loss of trust in our institutions and corporations.

I see our country in a state of entropy and disintegration, a la a fourth turning. We no longer share a core of civic knowledge or values. We no longer share a common language. Right has become wrong and wrong has become right. And don’t you dare question it.

What will emerge both individually and societally?

I cannot address the societal future, but I can look at how, on a personal level, one survives the cognitive dissonance of widespread change as we move through difficult times. Navigating liminal spaces requires both flexibility and discipline.

What can you do on an individual level to prepare for whatever life may throw at you?

First turn off the news. Read a limited amount to be aware, but get rid of the mind-numbing, mind-warping drone of the mainstream media. Refuse the call to mass hysteria and hypnosis. Education yourself. Recognize that it’s all kabuki theatre.

Look for truth. Is it true? Ignore the so called fact checkers and go back to original materials to see if what the media has told you is true or false. (Hint: the latter is the norm). Base your opinions on your first hand research, not the talking head reading a script on your tv. Reintroduce critical thinking to all aspects of your life.

Make time to unplug. Could you start a practice of no electronics for a limited time? What might you do with this new-found time?

Find daily peace. Spend time in nature. Meditate. Stop and simply be present. Notice the world around you. Are you at one with it? What’s more real for you in this moment: peace or dissonance?

Bernie Siegel, M.D. tells a wonderful story about choosing your world view. Bernie was an early leader in mind/body medicine. His colleagues at Yale laughed at the notion of a mind body connection. Needless to say, Bernie has had the last laugh.

Bernie’s story is about Mother Teresa. She was once asked to go to an antiwar rally. She declined. But she said she would attend a pro-peace rally.

That simple story is profound. It speaks to the power of our beliefs and our actions. It speaks to how we use our precious energy. Are you for something or simply against the status quo?

Get fit. You don’t have to aim for a ripped body. I know that at my age, that isn’t going to happen. But I can walk, walk a bit further, keep at the weights.

It’s incremental. The more I use my body, the better I feel. Find a daily practice that works for you.

Get to know yourself. On the podcast and in my writings I often say that we spend the first half of our lives having all sorts of expectations and judgments heaped upon us. If we’re lucky, we spend the second half stripping it all away.

Find some quiet time to sit with yourself. Examine your actions, reactions and motivations. Are they serving the real you, the person that exists beneath all the societal expectations? Are you happy with where you are in your own evolution? What would you like to improve?

Connect with others. Social support matters. Find your tribe and contribute to it. A tribe on-line is one thing. I have a far reaching on-line tribe and I value it enormously. I’ve met so many wonderful people through the podcast, but you also need a local network of people that you can connect with in person. Too often in person connection is under-rated in a fast paced, technology focused world. Invest some time in others. You’ll reap the rewards.

Look within for heart-felt, intuitive guidance. Do you live from the inside out, or from the outside in? Do you make decisions based on your heart or your head?

Intuition comes from the heart and it’s a greatly overlooked asset for navigating life’s bumps. I know that as I look back at my life, my intuition has typically guided me in my best interest. I may not always understand the path I am on, but I know that those inexplicable, intuitive choices seem to work out.

A Fourth Turning spells change. There is no way around it. The Chinese symbol for change contains the elements of both danger and opportunity. Over the next several years, I suspect we’re about to find out what that means. In the meantime, put your effort into yourself, into connecting with your heart. Discover and develop your deepest values and truths. Your mental, physical and spiritual health and intuition is your north star. Cultivate it wisely, with love.